Eurasia Diary talked exclusively to Sergei Markov, a Russian political scientist, journalist and social activist. He is a Doctor of Political Science, assistant professor of Public Policy department of Faculty of Philosophy at Moscow State University, director of the Institute of Political Science. He was also a member of the Presidential Commission of the Russian Federation to Counter Attempts to Falsify History to the Detriment of Russia's Interests. He is also a Deputy Chairman of the Russian Public Forum on International Affairs. Markov serves as co-Chairman of the National Strategic Council of Russia and is a member of the Presidential Council for Facilitating the Development of Civil Society Institutions and Human Rights of the Russian Federation.
Eurasia Diary: Mr. Markov, recently, the President of Armenia has told that they stop negotiation procedures because they have no guarantee about military safety from Azerbaijan. Following the Armenian President’s statements, ceasefire regime on the contact line has been broken again. Mass media on both sides have already published information on tensions. How you think what expectations Azerbaijan should have after such statements by the president of Armenia? Do you think the military operations will resume at the beginning of May as on May 8, a date which is remembered with joy in Armenia and tragedy in Azerbaijan as the occupation date of Shusha.
Sergei Markov: I think that renewal of military operations is quite possible. However, Russia makes all efforts for non-resumption of fire and resolution through negotiations. That is why, it is necessary for the Russian policy to simply calm down the patriotic fervor of the societies of both countries. When people who with such patriotic enthusiasm go along the central streets with national flags, it is very difficult for heads of the states to hold any negotiations on the basis of any compromise. People on the streets, as a rule, don’t always agree to a compromise.
Eurasia Diary: The news about the Armenian president’s statement during the interview spread fast on mass media, and especially, on the Russian media it was underlined as "urgent news". Can you comment on this?
Sergei Markov: I assume that the statements made by the Armenian president are rather an attempt of pressure upon the harsh terms of negotiations. With this Armenian leadership tries to shows to the Russian authorities that that it is too difficult for Yerevan to make the compromises that Moscow requires. To my mind, despite of the statements of the president of Armenia, after all the negotiations procedure will take place successfully. Probability of renewal of real mass-scale war by percentage is no more than 10 per cent. New flashes of military operations as 20 – 25 per cent. And I would give 70 per cent of success to the negotiations, compromises on historical agreements. Perhaps, starting from this year we will see the first returns of the Azerbaijani families to homes.
Interview conducted by Ayaz Mirzayev
