After White House’s decision on the withdrawal of the US armed forces and Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, the geo-political powers of Eurasian region have begun to focus more interests on the situation in Afghanistan, which is at the point of strategic importance in Asia.  

Regional powers – China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey, which have expressed the concerns over deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, called on all actors to involve in the dialogue with the participation of the ethno-religious groups, and stated that they are willing to participate in the arrangement of the dialogue between Taliban and other Afghan forces. They believed that the formation of the inclusive and representative government through the dialogue and negotiations is a real substance of positive development for ensuring long-term peace, security and stability in Afghanistan.

Referring to recognising the Taliban government, the government officials of these countries – especially Russia, Pakistan and Turkey, stated that they are ready to cooperate with the leaders of the Taliban if they refrain from aggression, violence and any threat to the neighbouring regions.

It is worth noting that yesterday Turkish President, Recep Tayyib Erdogan in his speech notified that Turkey’s military presence in Afghanistan is of importance for the new Kabul administration’s access to the international arena.

It is interesting what policy will Turkey promote towards the new Afghan government? How could Turkey contribute to the activities of pacification and stabilization in Afghanistan? What will Ankara's policy be on the upcoming influx of Afghan migrants?

In order to clarify these issues, Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Doğacan Başaran, specialist of ANKASAM on international relations. His main focus is on Afghanistan and Iranian studies.

- Mr Başaran, first please tell us, what are your predictions on the cooperation between Turkey and the future Afghan government?

- There are positive relations, from history, between Turkey and Afghanistan. It is possible to base these relations on the Turkish War of Independence and the similar modernization processes experienced by the two countries in line with the friendly relations between Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and Amanullah Khan. During the NATO intervention period, although it was in Afghanistan as part of its NATO mission, the Turkish Army did not turn its weapons against the Afghan people. On the contrary, Turkey has done works that touch people's hearts and serve the Afghan people, such as road and bridge construction, water delivery activities, mosque and school repairs. For this reason, it is possible to say that the Afghan people love Turkey very much. It is even known that during the NATO intervention, the coalition forces removed the flags from their uniforms and put on the Turkish flag. Because the Taliban did not target Turkish soldiers. Therefore, the Taliban take kindly to Turkey. Considering the recent statements made by both Turkish decision-makers and Taliban officials, it is seen that Turkey will continue to exist as an active actor in Afghanistan under the Taliban administration. After the Taliban took control of Kabul, Turkey is one of the five countries that declared that they would continue their diplomatic activities. This reflects the essence of the matter. The role that Turkey will assume in the construction process of the “New Afghanistan” in the upcoming period is of great importance. Turkey can be a key actor in building regional and global peace, both by being a part of the Western World and with its Muslim identity, by acting as a bridge for the Taliban to open to the West. It is expected that the Taliban evaluate this situation.

- How can you imagine Turkey’s contribution to the restoration of peace, security and stability, and the enhancement of economic and social prosperity in the country following Taliban’s returning to power?

- Turkey has always played a constructive role in Afghanistan. It can be stated that this situation will not change in the upcoming period. In this sense, it can be said that Turkey will provide technical support at the point of development of Afghanistan, the Turkish construction sector will take charge in the region for the reconstruction of the country in question, and Ankara will direct Turkish investors to Afghanistan in order to create employment. In addition, Afghanistan can centralize its geopolitical importance as a transit country at the point of the transportation of goods and services in the integration process between Turkey and the Turkic World. In other words, Afghanistan can be an important route country for Turkey. This can be possible if the Taliban cares about legitimacy and acts as a power that has learned lessons from the past. Because the establishment of a stable order in the aforementioned country will pave the way for regional cooperation projects as well as contributing to regional peace. Of course, everyone will get the best of this situation.

- What is a new policy of Turkey on Afghan migrants?  Why does Turkish opposition oppose Erdogan’s policy on Afghanistan?

- There is a concern stemming from the immigration issue. However, this is not limited to the Opposition. Turkey has stated at the highest level, by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan himself, that it cannot handle a new immigration movement. But the immigration issue has two dimensions. First, the fact that immigrants are human should not be overlooked. These people are fleeing war and trying to survive. Therefore, Turkey has never closed its doors to immigrants, both with the policies it has implemented throughout history and the approach it has recently adopted in the Syrian Civil War. In other words, Ankara has always been a side of humanitarian diplomacy. I think that Turkey will prioritize humanitarian diplomacy if a migration wave occurs in the coming period, despite the current statements. But the second dimension of the issue is also important. This situation has already caused existing objections. Because, by taking the immigration burden of the Syrian Civil War, Turkey has pushed its capacity at the economic and sociological level and has done its best. As President Erdogan has stated, it is unlikely that it will be able to handle a new wave of immigration. More importantly, the immigration movement due to the Syrian Civil War has also created a security problem, and terrorist elements, infiltrating the oppressed people, have carried out various terrorist activities. Therefore, Turkey’s unwillingness to encounter a new migration movement stems from understandable concerns. However, the only way to prevent immigration is to ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan. For this reason, it is seen that Turkey makes active efforts to establish peace and stability in the country in question, takes care to protect its capacity to communicate with all identity groups and creates a positive communication ground with the Taliban. At this point, it should be noted that; preventing immigration from Afghanistan and building peace is possible with the cooperation of all actors who will be affected by the instability there. For this reason, Turkey acts with a strategy that prioritizes regional cooperation. In this context, ANKASAM President Prof. Dr. Mehmet Seyfettin Erol's “6+1 Platform” proposal should be considered. In other words, the “Six+1 Platform”, which consists of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey, can also come to the fore as a group of guarantor countries in the “New Afghanistan” process.

by Yunis Abdullayev 

The article was prepared with the financial support of the Media Development Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan