Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said Wednesday that Russia could stage a false-flag provocation using drones and then claim it was responding to an attack, potentially creating a pretext for military action against a NATO member.
“What they are capable of is some kind of false-flag provocation using drones — perhaps Ukrainian drones — and then pretending that they are responding to our false, non-existent attack,” Sikorski said during a debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Los Angeles that was widely reported by Polish media.
Sikorski said Russia lacks the resources for a conventional attack on the alliance but could resort to a staged incident designed to manipulate public opinion and justify an escalation.
“They play these kinds of games. We have to be prepared for it,” he added.
The foreign minister has raised the possibility of the operation repeatedly in recent days, amid heightened concern in Poland and other countries on NATO’s eastern flank about potential Russian provocations and hybrid attacks.
The warning comes as Poland faces renewed Russian military activity near its borders. On Tuesday, Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft above international waters in the Baltic Sea after it approached to within around 30 kilometers (19 miles) of the Polish coast near Ustka.
Poland, a key logistical hub for Western military assistance to Ukraine, has repeatedly accused Russia of conducting hybrid operations on its territory, including sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
Warsaw has argued that the activity is intended not only to weaken Poland directly, but also to undermine public support for Ukraine and create divisions within NATO.
Sikorski has nevertheless said he continues to trust US security guarantees and argues that NATO has become stronger since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
